Making Friends with Chaos

Working with a lot of data analysts lately and seeing athletes redefine what’s possible has gotten me thinking about data, chaos and performance.

The Numbers Underneath

Some pursuits have a luxurious stream of data. Running an online business? The data feedback can be instant. Building a world class race car? The metrics are built into the car’s design for a constant flow of readings.

Some pursuits are numbingly consistent. Accounting data entry doesn’t often offer variation in performance or opportunities for peak performance.

But in most of our life, the data is more spare and varied, and our observations are often flawed.

The human brain tends to emphasize the negative. It can take several positives to equal the impact of one negative. Numbers can help us stay connected to reality.

Putting Numbers to Work

No matter how much data we have, the key is how we use it. In fact, we can separate ourselves from the vast majority of others by just paying attention to what’s working, noticing patterns, approaching improvement with intention.

Doing this gives us access to improvement and performing at the biggest moments. The book and film Moneyball were about this.

Four Patterns of Performance

Visualizing data can help unlock opportunities. If we had a set of a data points – like for instance competition statistics – we could see a more objective view of our performance than our brain will ever give us.

For instance, if we’re not approaching things intentionally, a year-long graph of our good, average and worst performances might look like this:

Messy Rut

Across our purple year, we have some peak moments but we are really inconsistent. It’s just as likely that we will have a lifetime best on any given day as an all-time low, and we are not improving over the course of the year

Let’s call this the messy rut. If we care about performance, we’re probably frustrated with these results.

Then there’s this graph:

In this gray year, we have fewer lows but also fewer highs. We’re consistent, but consistently average, and we’re not improving. If we care about getting better, this year might feel worse than a messy rut. This might be called stagnant mastery.

And yet it’s probably a better launching point. This graph shows mastery of this level. We don’t know what the ceiling of our skill is, but we’ve established a solid floor to our performances. We just don’t have horribly bad days.

And that’s not going to get us to the top. What we need is something different. Maybe it’s this:

Courageous Improvement

In our red year, we’re getting better. Average performances at the beginning of the year become our poor performances just a few months later. And the path is chaotic.

This is what it means to risk being great.

We’ve made our plan for improvement. We’re doing the work. And we’re putting ourselves out there. We’re getting some wins, but we know it’s going to come with some fails too.

The fails are part of the plan. We’re improving our results so that our target finish happens more often, whether that is making the cut, placing in the top 10 or winning. We are putting ourselves in the mix more often.

Let’s call this courageous improvement.

And then there is the blue year:


This graph looks great. No big fails, a steady feeling of things getting better. Near constant positive feedback. Sign me up!

Let’s wake up from that dream. Blue years are mostly fantasy, and fantasy isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

While a blue year might feel good, let’s take a closer look. If we’re competing against someone in a red year, we’re losing to them often. They are often putting up transcendent performances. We are top performers, grinding out good results and putting distance between those in ruts or stagnation, but we’re unlikely to win many year-end awards.

It’s not all bad. We are improving. We’re working as intentionally as someone in a red year. We’re logging wins, but probably winning means too much to us. Short-term results are clouding our vision of what our true potential is.

Let’s call this safe improvement.

We’re really talking about learning curves here. Are you even on a learning curve? If so, what kind are you choosing to be on?

You Can’t Win Them All

Not all our results SHOULD be first place. If so, we may be stagnating. This is how champions get dethroned. They scrap and battle to get to the top, then stop fighting as hard.

Even though variation in performance can be tough to stomach, that chaos can be a helpful sign that you’re taking risks toward breakthroughs.

Acclimatize

When climbers take on the highest mountains in the world, they don’t get to just arrive and make a push to the top. The air is too thin. Their bodies haven’t yet adjusted to extreme altitudes. They have to make small journeys to intermediate altitudes to build the ability to summit in deadly thin air.

It’s like that with extreme performance too. As we expand our capacity upward, we may have spikes of achievement, but we’re not quite ready to do it often. We have to acclimatize to that level of performance so it becomes more normal and sustainable.

This is where the blue graph becomes more real. Instead of being a year of constant improvement without disappointment, the blue graph often is a short period of consolidation when inconsistent new skills become fully part of our arsenal.

Higher Than The Summit

Here’s the trap – and the opportunity for greatness. If we stay in a mode of acclimatizing too long, we risk hitting a performance plateau. The blue graph fades into the gray graph or worse, the purple graph.

When we focus on getting used to doing incredible things, we might forget to imagine and reach for the next level of incredible things are. We might miss the higher summits we can aspire to.

We need chaos for the higher summits.

An ideal path navigates this tension between breakthroughs and normalizing what was previously impossible. Stay in breakthrough mode too long and you don’t gain the mastery needed to reach much higher. Stay in consistency mode too long and things get stale or worse, move backward.

The Off Season

The off season is used as a playground to explore this tension. Commit to red territory when there is more time for exploration and risk, then gain enough command of new skills to return to gray (stagnant mastery) or even better blue (safe improvement) by the beginning of the next season.

A Life Cycle of Chaos

In real life these graphs are not as clean. They transition from one to another. When we’re starting out, we have that beautiful and crazy upward trend of courageous improvement. Our passion for learning takes us quickly higher and higher, but our performance is hit or miss.

For most people, the graph turns into a messy rut when they plateau without intentional strategies for improvement.

This S-curve pattern is well-documented, especially in business.

To reach our potential, we want something more than a single S-curve. We want to go higher and higher. We do that by linking S-curves together.

As soon as we sense we are leveling off, we call on our old friend chaos again, trigger the next curve and give ourselves the chance at greatness.

Why We Should Always Be Learning

I believe in learning.

Not as measured in diplomas, but learning as measured in intellectual adventure, physical training or creative practice.

Avoiding by Learning

I don’t care why you’re learning, as long as you are. Almost.

Sometimes, after completing a learning adventure, we sign right up for a new one. I see this often with coaching colleagues and students. No time has passed to integrate the learning in the brain, apply it to one’s life or find one’s own twist on it.

Learning becomes a way to avoid the bigger goal. Don’t do that!

There will always be something more to learn. Not knowing doesn’t make you less, but not maximizing your learning does.

Learning from the Negative

Some of my learning comes from fear. Alzheimer’s killed my mother, and it was heartbreaking to watch her fade as the disease took hold. As a family member, I know I it’s more likely that Alzheimer’s might hit my brain too. So I learn, to keep my brain active, to create new neural pathways. I learn new languages – Italian, Swedish, Portuguese – taking my brain through at least one lesson every day.

When we have missteps, we learn about pitfalls that were off our radar, or we learn more effective strategies. When others treat us poorly, we can learn how to be assertive.

While the trigger is a negative, the key is the choice to learn rather than repeating the same experience.

Because I’m Curious, That’s Why

I am impressed by history buffs. I am not one, but when I see the gusto with which they delve into people, places and things from the past, it blows my mind. The curiosity is so intense.

Sometimes we learn because it’s just something we care about, something we heard about, and we want to know everything about it. It’s perfect, and no one else needs to have any clue why the topic interests you. It’s your thing. Go down that rabbit hole and learn about it.

Necessary Learning

Sometimes you don’t get to choose what to learn. Lessons to learn in school or new skills to master quickly for work. It’s not sexy like the other kinds. Purely pragmatic. And it’s still learning.

Here’s the thing: you do get to choose how you experience the learning. So you can see it as shackles dragging you in the wrong direction, or you can reframe it in a way that works for you.

When I was promoted to my first substantial marketing role, I had no formal marketing training. Every day there was a new piece of my job to learn. I could have defined this as losing pace while running as fast as I could, but there was a different choice. Engage with the learning. Appreciate the wealth of allies and teachers around me. Learn not only the basics but how I can add my touch to create impact.

The funny thing is, often this new learning pays off. A future class becomes easier. Or we become more marketable for our next job. Or we’re able to help a friend out. What I learned during that marketing job was invaluable, and I use those skills and concepts often.

Accidental Learning

Sometimes I learn from serendipity. I went to an event called Creative Mornings a few years ago, and the speaker was a leader from a film making school for young women. I learned at least two things that morning. I had not known how suffocating the pressure to succeed was for young women, how the fear of failure holds many back from even trying what they are clearly capable of. And I had learned that I had something of a passion for failure. Specifically, a respect for failure’s purpose and a passionate dislike of failure as a fetish or tech bro badge of honor. Only a few months later, I had articulated my take on these concepts in a keynote speech at a big conference. I never planned that learning, but I embraced it when it found me.

Learning To Optimize

Almost all of us learn something every day, whether we acknowledge it or not. We might learn that apples have gone on sale at the grocery store. Or that rain is predicted for tonight. Or that there is, somehow, yet another way fellow drivers can make bad decisions. We’re learning, and most of it is unconscious.

The key is to be intentional. It gets us where we want to go faster.

Notice what happens. Evaluate where we are and what’s needed next. Then choose to learn.

I didn’t understand what that person said? My conversational Spanish mustn’t be good enough yet. How can I take steps to get better?

Wow, we prepared so hard for that competition and didn’t get the result we wanted. What were the key factors, and how can we reset and grow for next time?

It’s not always easy. It often doesn’t take a straight line path. Teachers are rarely waiting in the next room to answer all our questions. We actually have to do some work. Exceptional results require an exceptional, resourceful effort.

The Next Chapter

What has this year taught you? And what do you want to learn from it?

What learning experience could change your life?

How can you support someone else in learning something extraordinary?

Believing The Praise. And Using It.

One of my dreams as a freestyle player was being named Player of the Year (POTY). Winning big titles was important too, but there was something special about the idea of being POTY. The one person people remembered as making the most impact in a given year.

Usually these awards are subjective, so you never know whether you’re making the right impact. In freestyle, there were years when I thought I had done enough, when I was named to the shortlist but not given that coveted POTY honor.

I remember being disappointed, wondering what more I needed to do for it to be enough. Why others were being seen in ways I wasn’t. Yup,like most people I have an ego that likes attention. Among those of us who aspire to high performance, the ego’s voice is often way too loud.

In the end, I was named POTY. I might have even won it more than once. I don’t remember. As lovely as that POTY pat on the back was, the feeling was fleeting. It wasn’t the primary goal (world titles!!!) or a process goal (improvement, speed, strength, endurance, leadership). It was an outgrowth of the other goals.

The Surprise

Fast forward to December of last year. I’m reading the wrap-up of the year in DDC (my new primary sport), and I read “Arthur Coddington is our player of the year.”

Huh?

Exciting news! But, huh?

I didn’t even expect to be in consideration. I had a breakout year, placing 3rd or better in every event I played, but I never won. In freestyle, it was traditional that you must win a major title to be on the shortlist. Here I was with no title, yet I was now POTY.

Excitement. Happiness. Confusion.

I learned late in life to accept compliments gracefully, even when I did not think they were deserved. So, I took a moment to let myself be excited and thankful.

After letting it sink in, I noticed some things.

Controlling the Controllable

We are not in control of how people see us. We can only control the controllable. Be ourselves, live honorable values and pursue our goals to the best of our abilities.

Our Perception Are Probably Wrong

The standard we set for our success might be wildly different than the standards others set for us. People have shared their worries about job performance only to learn that everyone’s talking about the tremendous value they bring. Sadly, sometimes the opposite is true, and people who think they are doing great suddenly learn they were falling short. Communication is the only way we’re going to find out for sure.

We Create Our Own Meaning

We can hear compliments and forget them. Dismiss them. Diminish them. Keep our expectations muted.

I could define this honor as unearned or allow myself to invent cynical reasons why I won. Or, I can use it to move myself forward.

We can hear compliments and harness them, even if we might not fully believe them right now.

That’s the path I chose. I’m proud of my performance last year, and it feels great to be seen. It feels like an embrace from the community. I am choosing to live in the spirit of POTY: pushing my limits, teaching others, and enjoying as many moments along the way as I can. This part is in my control.

Others See Our Horizon Better Than Us

I took the POTY award as both an honor and a responsibility. If someone’s going to go to all the trouble of naming me POTY, I should try to live up to that standard. I kept working at my skills through the winter. A few months after the award was announced, I played the first major tournament of the year. Arguably the deepest and most difficult event to win.

It’s a one-day, marathon event. Four rounds played over almost 8 hours, with virtually no breaks. My team progressed through the first round undefeated, which qualified us to play every other team in the top 10. We won all those games to qualify for the semifinals – and choose our opponent as the team with the top record. We chose well and won our semifinal in two straight games. That set up a finals match with the #1 ranked team (we were #2).

In the past, I might have succumbed to doubts playing a major championship final against two legends of the sport. But with our record that day and the honor of being called POTY, I had evidence that I belonged on that court. No need for doubts. Just play. And we did. We won the first game handily, then overcame a large deficit and tight finish to close out the match in two straight games, going undefeated through the day and winning my first major title in this sport.

Taking Action Around Praise

What do others think about you, and how can you find out?

How are you responding to feedback or compliments? Fighting it? Forgetting it? Or hearing it deeply and using it to propel you forward?

How can you propel someone else forward with praise?

Achieving Vulnerability

Achieving vulnerability. Photo

Top performers can seem like freaks of nature, impervious to pressure, perpetually healthy and prepared for battle.

Invulnerable.

I believe it’s the opposite. Being vulnerable can be mistaken for a sign of weakness, but it can actually be one of our biggest strengths.

Don’t get me wrong, top performers are often freaks of nature. As humans, we vary in our mental and physical strengths, and outliers (freaks of nature) have a headstart. And I think one of the strengths of the truly legendary performers is their vulnerability. Specifically, self-knowledge of vulnerability.

Allowing Vulnerability

Western society puts on a brave face, pretending that emotions are a luxury and a barrier to accomplishment. While it’s possible to go quite far while denying human emotion, emotion and vulnerability are often the drivers of transcendent creations.

When we deny vulnerability, we are hiding a part of ourselves, fighting against it. Sometimes this is the part of us that makes the big leap. Sometimes it gives us access to performances levels we never imagined.

Justin Vernon spent a winter at a Wisconsin cabin in the wake of illness and the breakup of a relationship. Allowing his emotions into his music without filters, he created a critically-acclaimed album, launched the Grammy-winning act Bon Iver and redefined his musical reputation.

More recently, Phil Elverum wrote music as he mourned the loss of his wife. Through the quiet and heartbreaking and raw songs on “A Crow Looked at Me, we are side-by-side with Elverum as he meets each day without his late wife. The album has been called one of the best of 2017.

It’s not always about breakups and death. Triple jumper Christian Taylor was already the Olympic champion when he started having knee pain in 2013. Facing a potential career-ending knee condition, Taylor faced this vulnerability and did the impossible. He learned to jump with his other leg. Even more incredible, he exceeded his previous best jump and nearly broke the world record two years later at the world championships. A year later he won another Olympic title.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Os8H-zDLuE

By allowing vulnerability, these three – and so many others – have removed barriers to performance.

Let’s shed the baggage these words carry. It’s time to redefine emotion and vulnerability.

Emotion is a source of strength, and vulnerability is a key to breakthroughs.

Achieving Vulnerability

Top performers are focused on doing and performing and achieving. So how do we move from allowing vulnerability to integrating it into training toward the big moment?

Throughout their careers, they identify where they are vulnerable and address it. They practice the skill of distinguishing between what is under their control and what is not, and they work on what’s under their control.

They look at the strengths of their competitors and use them as inspiration to close the gap and even chart new territory.

Even if they are already the GOAT, they don’t convince themselves of their invulnerability. They assess their performance and envision what’s possible next. They anticipate vulnerability and address it before it impacts their results.

If they have weaknesses like performing under pressure, they don’t let that vulnerability fester. They experiment in order to find the methods that let them access peak performance at the highest stress moments.

And when they have setbacks like injury or a failed enterprise, they muster their courage and look deep into that vulnerability with the intention of emerging stronger than ever.

Passive vulnerability is not the champion mindset. It’s an invitation to be destroyed.

Active vulnerability – achieving vulnerability – is how innovators make their mark.

One last thought on vulnerability. It’s an essential ingredient in true success because it makes us human. We’ve all seen tunnel-visioned success stories who turn out to be uninteresting (at best) people. Vulnerability means we’re connected with who we are. Someone who has achieved vulnerability is more likely to be seen as a real person. And I think that’s a good thing.

Where are you vulnerable, and what are you going to do about it?

Those Damned Expectations

Peak performance is about paradox. Be intense and stay relaxed at the same time. Play with bravado and humility simultaneously. Be fully trained nearly beyond the bounds of health – and fully rested too.

The bigger picture of peak performance is the same. When we commit to big goals, we can be seduced by the expectations that go with them. We can lose track of the work needed to get there and lose sight of our progress. Both of these diminish our potential. Today, we’ll talk about setting aside expectations and keeping connected to progress.

PERSPECTIVE FOR LONG-TERM DOMINANCE

Perspective makes the experience of pursuing goals more effective and rewarding.

While it’s useful to attack our huge goals and aspire to greater achievement it’s also important to keep things in perspective and to celebrate successes. Let’s say your huge goal is dominance. You want to be the number one company or the number one athlete or have the greatest social impact of any activist in history. If our expectation is achieving that at the next milestone, we are setting ourselves up for frustration. Becoming the Dominant One can feel like trudging forward, but there is a more rewarding, effective road.

A problem with enormous goals like dominance is that they are always in the future until they aren’t. Sometimes we only see dominance in retrospect.

In the meantime, it can be a pretty bleak road where we only see disappointment at not meeting our expectations. Even the victories seem smaller than we want.

But let’s step back for some perspective. What seems disappointing today might have been an unimaginable performance five years ago. Most of the time we don’t see that. Our progress is entangled with end goals and ego. Expectations. We’ve lost sight of how wonderfully we are moving forward, and with that we’ve lost an opportunity to be even more dominant.

CONFIDENCE

Seeing progress gives us access to confidence. When we are bound by expectations, our self-talk might sound like “why is it never good enough?!?!?!” or “of course! Another mistake that puts me behind everyone else.

Freeing ourself from expectations with a bit of perspective, we are free to say “that’s not the level I’m ultimately going for, but it’s so much better than last time.” We give ourselves credit for progress, but there’s something else available. One of the key factors in clutch, dominant performance is confidence or bravado. By giving ourselves credit, we also give ourselves permission to own a higher level of bravado.

Team leaders take note. If your folks have just hit their number or delivered on a deadline, give ample time for celebration. Talking about the bigger goals too soon spoils the fun and prevents the team from locking in their well-earned bravado. It’s also possible that your newly confident team might have bigger, better ideas for what’s possible next.

TINKERING TO OPTIMIZE

Seeing progress also lets us evaluate and see new opportunities. We’ve gained bravado. Now we get to add a dose of humility to shake things up.

True dominance requires tinkering. It requires a paradox of complete immersion in generating momentum toward the goal AND self-awareness of what’s working and what’s not.

Sometimes we get so inside our pursuit of a goal that we lose sight of what it actually takes to succeed. We become reactive instead of strategic. We might take short cuts, sacrificing long-term success for a short-term win. In this moment, we might feel frustrated or drifting or fuzzy about how we’ll ever get where we want to go. It’s at this point that many people give up.

Not you.

By taking a step back and seeing your progress, you can access both the bravado of a champion and the humility that makes a dominant force.

Take an honest look at what’s working and make a comprehensive assessment of what’s needed next. Remember, we don’t always know everything the ultimate goal will require of us. Pausing gives us a chance to notice things like:

Are my assumptions flawed?

What are others doing that might work for me?

What are others doing that might be completely wrong for me…or even them?

How am I enjoying the experience of getting there?

Where can I cultivate a surprising dominant advantage?

We pause. We tinker. Then we do it again.

And through the tinkering, we discover opportunity.

Now go tinker!